These findings are shared for research purposes and indications for decision makers to help them broaden perspectives and expand understanding until they materialize in a reviewed paper.

Severity Mortality and excess mortality analysis


Studying Sweden where the virus has had much of its natural course because of the limited restrictions imposed by the government and by the fact that it is far north thus benefits from little sun protection

When we try to assess Covid Lethality, the actual number of infected cases can only be extrapolated making all IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) values approximations since the actual number of infected is unknown.  If we account for specific antibodies detected through serology tests and add memory immunity T cells, cross immunity, cellular immunity take us to values between 14 % and 30 %.  Which puts us in a range between   1 400 000 and 3 000 000. This results in an IFR or lethality between 0.17 % and 0.34 %.


Having a closer look we only notice a 3 725 count in overmortality instead of a 5 420 Covid declared death. Some of this could be due to deaths with comorbidities having been attributed to Covid. IFR may actually be lower and would drop to a range between 0.12 % to 0.34 %.

Looking at the epidemic from a collective perspective, impact of the epidemic becomes clearer.

explores the « epidemic » only looking at the «aggressive » window leading End of March to early May reaching a count of 4857 representing a 10.5 % overmortality  lower than the 1940/1941 influenza outbreak in terms of mortality/capita.

We feel looking at a wider window gives a better perspective as to real over mortality.  Covid effect on a « naive » population has led to a maximum increased mortality of 8 % compared to influenza in previous years assuming no deaths were caused by Influenza. Effect of Covid on the population in Sweden where little restrictions were applied was 8 % increased in death compared to previous years assuming all excessive death was caused by Covid and none by Influenza.













In H1 2020 Mortality  of all causes was 0.48 % (in Orange) of population and within that  overmortality related to Covid phase was 0.04% (in Yellow). This maybe no comfort for those who lost loved ones. But as immunity builds up future eventual outbreaks are likely to be milder and now more can be done to prevent.

Over a whole semester Covid in Sweden where population was recommended to take care and large events were cancelled, but also where influenza seemed almost absent, the situation in terms of overmortality over a semester led to a situation 8 % to 10 % more severe than previous years where there were influenza outbreaks.

Sweden is a country that does not benefit of sun, and where like much of Europe there is signficant obesity. On the other hand, Stockholm the main city is less dense than some European capitals.



In Denmark the epidemic effect on mortality is invisible. Over the first 2020 half an undermortality can be observed in spite of short lockdown of places.  We observe a difference between Undermortality and covid death suggesting a possible covid death attribution that may be attributed to comorbidities.  Overmortality due t Covid situation is -0.01 %






Belgium is one of 3 hardest hit countries in the World in spite of a severe prolonged lockdown.

It has declared 9776 Covid deaths. Overmortality is 3993 confirming same excess in covid counts with respect to overmortality as observed in for Sweden and Denmark.


This difference could be caused by 2 possible explanations that could each could contribute to this massive 60 % overcount. Either Covid situation spared up to 5783 lives or simply 5783 deaths occured with patients who died of comorbidities and Covid but actually died of comorbidities.


Belgium has a population of around 11 486 000. Overmortality in H1 2020 is around 7 % in on of the top 3 hardest hit countries with an overmortality of 0.03 %.





France Insee’s data provides a similar pattern to that of Sweden with an overmortality of 6.73 % corresponding to 17691 people. This is lower than the 29779 declared by France. If there we set aside overmortality caused by influenza or lockdown and assume all of that overmortality is attributed to Covid, that figure is still lower by 40 % than the « COVID » death indicating most likely a very large comorbidities factor attributed to COVID.


Given that May and June 2020 Showed undermortality. The overmortality displayed during the Covid episode is comparable to that of the 2016 – 2017 influenza.






A look back at a recent severe Influenza epidemic in 2016-2017 over the months of December 2016  to February 2017 and comparing mortality to that of February 2020 to April 2020, The Covid year indicates an excess mortality of 1.42 % in one of the 10 hardest countries in the World as per death per million inhabitants. Also the undermortality that followed further confirms comorbidities’ rôle in Covid deaths counts which could turn out to be 30 % to 60 % of Covid attributed deaths. Having a longer look at history gives us a better insight as to what happenned in one of the hardest hit countries in the world but also one that displayed sufficient data transparency because of its structures. In France, 2020 in terms of mortality was a silghly milder, or  comparable to 2016/2017, 1973, 1997, 2000 influenzas  and much much milder than 1969,1956,1963, 1962…..

Monthly Death (INSEE data)/ Population (Estimate of linear evolution from 42 Millions to 67 Millions)


This suggests  a disproportion between epidemic’s impact and populations’  overall reactions which could lead to actions and regulations that are counter productive on physical, physiological, psychological health of populations making them from fragile against covid, flu epidemics, heat, cold…...

Data also indicates a very high rôle and proportion of deaths that are due to comorbidities mostly related to obesity and vitamin-d defficiency.

This is further confirmed by the existence of many countries like Denmark observing an undermortality in spite of having some COVID deaths.

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