These findings are shared for research purposes and indications for decision makers to help them broaden perspectives and expand understanding until they materialize in a reviewed paper.
Severity Mortality and excess mortality analysis
Studying
Sweden
where the virus has had much of its natural course because of
the limited restrictions imposed by the government and by the
fact that it is far north thus benefits from little sun
protection
When
we
try to assess Covid Lethality, the actual number of infected
cases can only be extrapolated making all IFR (Infection
Fatality Rate) values approximations since the
Having
a closer look we only notice a 3 725 count in overmortality
instead of a 5 420 Covid declared death. Some of this could be
due to deaths with comorbidities having been attributed to
Covid. IFR may actually be lower and would drop to a range
between 0.12 % to 0.34 %.
Looking
at the epidemic from a collective perspective, impact of the
epidemic becomes clearer.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20110320v2.full.pdf+html
explores
the
« epidemic » only looking at the «aggressive »
window leading End of March to early May reaching a count of
4857 representing a 10.5 % overmortality
lower than the 1940/1941 influenza outbreak in terms of
mortality/capita.
We
feel looking at a wider window gives a better perspective as to
real over mortality. Covid
effect on a « naive » population has led to a maximum
increased mortality of 8 % compared to influenza in
previous years assuming no deaths were caused by Influenza.
Effect of Covid on the population in Sweden where little
restrictions were applied was 8 % increased in death
compared to previous years assuming all excessive death was
caused by Covid and none by Influenza.
In
H1 2020 Mortality of
all causes was 0.48 % (in Orange) of population and within
that overmortality
related to Covid phase was 0.04% (in Yellow). This maybe no
comfort for those who lost loved ones. But as immunity builds up
future eventual outbreaks are likely to be milder and now more
can be done to prevent.
Over
a whole semester Covid in Sweden where population was
recommended to take care and large events were cancelled, but
also where influenza seemed almost absent, the situation in
terms of overmortality over a semester led to a situation
8 % to 10 % more severe than previous years where
there were influenza outbreaks.
Sweden
is a country that does not benefit of sun, and where like much
of Europe there is signficant obesity. On the other hand,
Stockholm the main city is less dense than some European
capitals.
Denmark
In
Denmark the epidemic effect on mortality is invisible. Over the
first 2020 half an undermortality can be observed in spite of
short lockdown of places. We
observe a difference between Undermortality and covid death
suggesting a possible covid death attribution that may be
attributed to comorbidities.
Overmortality due t Covid situation is -0.01 %
Belgium
Belgium
is one of 3 hardest hit countries in the World in spite of a
severe prolonged lockdown.
It
has declared 9776 Covid deaths. Overmortality is 3993 confirming
same excess in covid counts with respect to overmortality as
observed in for Sweden and Denmark.
This
difference
could be caused by 2 possible explanations that could each could
contribute to this massive 60 % overcount. Either Covid
situation spared up to 5783 lives or simply 5783 deaths occured
with patients who died of comorbidities and Covid but actually
died of comorbidities.
Belgium
has
a population of around 11 486 000. Overmortality in H1 2020 is
around 7 % in on of the top 3 hardest hit countries with an
overmortality of 0.03 %.
France
France
Insee’s
data provides a similar pattern to that of Sweden with an
overmortality of 6.73 % corresponding to 17691 people. This
is lower than the 29779 declared by France. If there we set
aside overmortality caused by influenza or lockdown and assume
all of that overmortality is attributed to Covid, that figure is
still lower by 40 % than the « COVID » death
indicating most likely a very large comorbidities factor
attributed to COVID.
Given
that May and June 2020 Showed undermortality. The overmortality
displayed during the Covid episode is comparable to that of the
2016 – 2017 influenza.
A look back at a recent severe Influenza epidemic in 2016-2017
over the months of December 2016
to February 2017 and comparing mortality to that of
February 2020 to April 2020, The Covid year indicates an excess
mortality of 1.42 % in one of the 10 hardest countries in
the World as per death per million inhabitants. Also the
undermortality that followed further confirms comorbidities’
rôle in Covid deaths counts which could turn out to be 30 %
to 60 % of Covid attributed deaths. Having a longer look at
history gives us a better insight as to what happenned in one of
the hardest hit countries in the world but also one that
displayed sufficient data transparency because of its
structures. In France, 2020 in terms of mortality was a silghly
milder, or comparable
to 2016/2017, 1973, 1997, 2000 influenzas
and much much milder than 1969,1956,1963, 1962…..
Monthly
Death
(INSEE data)/ Population (Estimate of linear evolution from 42
Millions to 67 Millions)
This
suggests a
disproportion between epidemic’s impact and populations’
overall reactions which could lead to actions and
regulations that are counter productive on physical,
physiological, psychological health of populations making them
from fragile against covid, flu epidemics, heat, cold…...
Data
also indicates a very high rôle and proportion of deaths that
are due to comorbidities mostly related to obesity and vitamin-d
defficiency.
This
is further confirmed by the existence of many countries like
Denmark observing an undermortality in spite of having some
COVID deaths.