France Story Model

This Page shows how according to this model the France story would be described.              

It is only an attempt to describe subject to corrections, improvements, suggestions.

Many models may provide different conclusions, this one shows some consistency and is the reason why we are sharing for better research for all.

You can see our analysis on the data and cross check to see how accurate the analysis is. You can see the dates, as per our analysis, at which the curve changes and things start becoming better by clicking here.  

This country has a population of 67 Millions  
This model describes best if situation started January 21st 2020  
Each individual was infecting at a rate of 0.3 per day during 9 to 10 days   
Government proceeded to progressive lockdowns March 16th


(2,7 to 3,0)

Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary

(2,7 to 3,0) Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary Model may work if its started a few days later but entered 2 infected people navigating in different spheres or a superspreader appeared early on 
On March 17th  2%? (Infected people)  
Expected peak infection date

April 14th
Population Immuned
Expected peak lossed date if still locked

April 24th
Population Immuned then
68.00% These numbers maybe altered by lockdown/unlock dates and policy changes to unlock
Expected herd immunity (natural R0 on population <1)

April 26th
Population Immuned
Expected losses <100/day

May 31st
Poupulation Immuned
If heat slows it as preliminary data indicates
Expected peak infection date     April 14th   Population Immuned   43,00%
Expected peak lossed date if still locked     April 26th   Population Immuned then   45,00%
Expected herd immunity (natural R0 on population <1)     May 21st   Population Immuned   70,00%
Expected losses <100/day     June 15th   Poupulation Immuned   74,00%

Cloudy Sky

If this model is correct a very large portion of France has been infected and recovered

It would mean France, is largely protected for as long as full or partial immunity lasts

Projected daily loss in blue natural spread in red with confinment

Cloudy Sky

Most should recover in all cases and may develop some form of immunity

Cloudy Sky


Life finds a way and most will recover and let’s remember all those who may have left us

Cloudy Sky

Unfortunately sometimes life ends, we all try our best to have long nice best moments.

Some go with Corona (Maybe it shortenned their life, maybe not) Over mortality like the one calculated for influenza is done after the fact based on statistical models

Some just go every day Let’s honor them all Let’s take care of a larger picture (obsessions restrict our thoughts, We need to broaden them)

A thought for healthcare professionals who have left because they were overworked

A thought for the elder who have left us with or without Corona without being able to say goodbye because of confinement


Infected in blue recovered in red

Cloudy Sky

Infections and recoveries

All are stronger and a little more adapted

Much of the Population has immunity

Time to reconstruct

How does the model test against reality

Hypothesis confinement peak minimized if until April 12th. At this stage 2/3 of population would have been infected

Our analysis and its correlation to real available data is underneath:   

Date Real Losses  Modeled Losses
15/03/20 127 144
16/03/20 148 183
17/03/20 175 233
18/03/20 264 296
19/03/20 372 377
20/03/20 450 480
21/03/20 562 610
22/03/20 674 776
23/03/20 860 987
24/03/20 1.100 1255
25/03/20 1331 1595
26/03/20 1696 2025
27/03/20 1995 2391
28/03/20 2314 2817

Are they getting better at treating it ?

Are they overwhelmed ?

Is it because of confinement ?

People are getting better at dealing with it ? (Diet)

Weather is warmer immunity is stronger ?

Something else ?

Maybe in a fair attempt to be more reliable they start attempting to estimate overmortality ?

Maybe they miss those locked up at home ?

Maybe Zinc, vitamine c, quinine, quercetine are helping people get protection ?

Maybe warmer weather and sun both strengthen immunity and reduce spread ?

See section on multicountry comparing weather France seems to have learned from Italy and Spain, people maybe keeping themselves healthier, treatments seem to be available

We may expect (hope) numbers of lossed to slow as weather becomes milder, people deal better with it, maybe the weaker are more subject to first ingection exposure, maybe people strengthen their immunity, maybe the healthcare system deals better with it, maybe the system starts to try to count only over mortality