France Story Model
This Page shows how according to this model the France story would be described.
It is only an attempt to describe subject to corrections, improvements, suggestions.
Many models may provide different conclusions, this one shows some consistency and is the reason why we are sharing for better research for all.
You can see our analysis on the data and cross check to see how accurate the analysis is. You can see the dates, as per our analysis, at which the curve changes and things start becoming better by clicking here.
| This country has a population of 67 Millions | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This model describes best if situation started January 21st 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Each individual was infecting at a rate of 0.3 per day during 9 to 10 days | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Government proceeded to progressive lockdowns March 16th | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-may-have-been-in-italy-for-weeks-before-it-was-detected |
(2,7 to 3,0) Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary |
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| (2,7 to 3,0) Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary | Model may work if its started a few days later but entered 2 infected people navigating in different spheres or a superspreader appeared early on | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| On March 17th 2%? (Infected people) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If this model is correct a very large portion of France has been infected and recovered
It would mean France, is largely protected for as long as full or partial immunity lasts
Projected daily loss in blue natural spread in red with confinment
Most should recover in all cases and may develop some form of immunity
Life finds a way and most will recover and let’s remember all those who may have left us
Unfortunately sometimes life ends, we all try our best to have long nice best moments.
Some go with Corona (Maybe it shortenned their life, maybe not) Over mortality like the one calculated for influenza is done after the fact based on statistical models
Some just go every day Let’s honor them all Let’s take care of a larger picture (obsessions restrict our thoughts, We need to broaden them)
A thought for healthcare professionals who have left because they were overworked
A thought for the elder who have left us with or without Corona without being able to say goodbye because of confinement
Infected in blue recovered in red
Infections and recoveries
All are stronger and a little more adapted
Much of the Population has immunity
Time to reconstruct
How does the model test against reality
Hypothesis confinement peak minimized if until April 12th. At this stage 2/3 of population would have been infected
Our analysis and its correlation to real available data is underneath:
| Date | Real Losses | Modeled Losses |
|---|---|---|
| 15/03/20 | 127 | 144 |
| 16/03/20 | 148 | 183 |
| 17/03/20 | 175 | 233 |
| 18/03/20 | 264 | 296 |
| 19/03/20 | 372 | 377 |
| 20/03/20 | 450 | 480 |
| 21/03/20 | 562 | 610 |
| 22/03/20 | 674 | 776 |
| 23/03/20 | 860 | 987 |
| 24/03/20 | 1.100 | 1255 |
| 25/03/20 | 1331 | 1595 |
| 26/03/20 | 1696 | 2025 |
| 27/03/20 | 1995 | 2391 |
| 28/03/20 | 2314 | 2817 |
Are they getting better at treating it ?
Are they overwhelmed ?
Is it because of confinement ?
People are getting better at dealing with it ? (Diet)
Weather is warmer immunity is stronger ?
Something else ?
Maybe in a fair attempt to be more reliable they start attempting to estimate overmortality ?
Maybe they miss those locked up at home ?
Maybe Zinc, vitamine c, quinine, quercetine are helping people get protection ?
Maybe warmer weather and sun both strengthen immunity and reduce spread ?
See section on multicountry comparing weather France seems to have learned from Italy and Spain, people maybe keeping themselves healthier, treatments seem to be available
We may expect (hope) numbers of lossed to slow as weather becomes milder, people deal better with it, maybe the weaker are more subject to first ingection exposure, maybe people strengthen their immunity, maybe the healthcare system deals better with it, maybe the system starts to try to count only over mortality