The Netherlands Story Model

This Page shows how according to this model the Netherlands story would be described.              

It is only an attempt to describe subject to corrections, improvements, suggestions.

Many models may provide different conclusions, this one shows some consistency and is the reason why we are sharing for better research for all.

You can see our analysis on the data and cross check to see how accurate the analysis is. You can see the dates, as per our analysis, at which the curve changes and things start becoming better by clicking here.

This country has a population of   17 Millions  
This model describes best if situation started January 21st 2020  
Each individual was infecting at a rate of 0.3 per day during 9 to 10 days   
Government proceeded to progressive lockdowns March 16th  
On March 17th 2%(Infected people)  
Expected peak infection date
April 10th
Population Immuned  51,00%
Expected peak lossed date if still locked
April 17th
Population Immuned then 73,00% These numbers maybe altered by lockdown/unlock  dates and policy changes to unlock
Expected herd immunity (natural R0 on population <1) April 16th
Population Immuned  71,00%
Expected losses <100/day
May 8th
Poupulation Immuned 86,00%
Cloudy Sky



Cloudy Sky

Most should recover in all cases and may develop some form of immunity

Cloudy Sky


Life finds a way and most will recover and let’s remember all those who may have left us

Cloudy Sky

Unfortunately sometimes life ends, we all try our best to have long nice best moments.

Some go with Corona (Maybe it shortenned their life, maybe not)

Some just go every day Let’s honor them all Let’s take care of a larger picture (obsessions restrict our thoughts)

A thought for healthcared professionals who have left because they were overworked

A thought for the elder who have left us with or without Corona without being able to say goodbye because of confinement

Infected in blue recovered in red

Cloudy Sky

Infections and recoveries

All are stronger and a little more adapted

Much of the Population has immunity

Time to reconstruct

How does the model test against reality

Hypothesis confinement peak minimized if until April 12th. At this stage 2/3 of population would have been infected

Our analysis and its corelation to real available data is underneath:   

Date Real Losses Modeled Losses
18/03/20 58 67
19/03/20 76 86
20/03/20 106 109
21/03/20 136 139
22/03/20 179 176
23/03/20 213 224
24/03/20 276 285
25/03/20 356 362
26/03/20 434 460
27/03/20 546 584
28/03/20 639 741