UK Story Model

This Page shows how according to this model the UK story would be described.              

It is only an attempt to describe subject to corrections, improvements, suggestions.

Many models may provide different conclusions, this one shows some consistency and is the reason why we are sharing for better research for all.

You can see our analysis on the data and cross check to see how accurate the analysis is. You can see the dates, as per our analysis, at which the curve changes and things start becoming better by clicking here.

This country has a population of   67 Millions  
This model describes best if situation started January 21st 2020  
Each individual was infecting at a rate of 0.3 per day during 9 to 10 days   
Government proceeded to progressive lockdowns March 16th


(2,7 to 3,0)

Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary

(2,7 to 3,0) Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary Model may work if its started a few days later but entered 2 infected people navigating in different spheres or a superspreader appeared early on 
On March 17th   2%(Infected people)  
Expected peak infection date
April 18th
Population Immuned  41,00%
Expected peak lossed date
April 28th
Population Immuned then 67,00% These numbers maybe altered by lockdown/unlock  dates and policy changes to unlock
Expected herd immunity (natural R0 on population <1) April 30th
Population Immuned  70,00%
Expected losses <100/day
May 9th
Poupulation Immuned 81,00%
Cloudy Sky

With Confinment Factor

Assuming Confinment stops April 12th

If this model is correct a very large portion of Wuhan has been infected and recovered

It would mean Wuhan, is largely protected for as long as full or partial immunity lasts

Projected daily loss in blue natural spread in red with confinment

Cloudy Sky

Lockdown slowed slightly the spread but had a limited effect

If the model is correct, the epidemic in Wuhan was well advanced and closer to the end

The model seems to reflect a higher number of loss than that identified

The model seems to reflect a correct window of loss with Corona for other countries so far

Possible causes

1) Adjustments to the model

2) At the beggining maybe losses may have been orverlooked before tests were available

3) When system was overloaded maybe some loss and tests were overlooked

4) China has a traditional medicine based on herbs and accupuncture, maybe it helped

5) Something else

In all cases remember these numbers are loss with Corona and not Over Mortality caused by Corona in a valid statiscal model

Such model would require

1) Available reliable data

2) Having details of mortality by category and after the fact calculating statistically what is the real over-mortality (this is how it is done with influenza in many countries)

Such statistic would result in a lower number as unfortunately some people die with or without Corona

An interesting figure would be changes in loss rate in Wuhan in January, February, March, April as they become available

They would reflect impact of Corona situation, the disease itself, anxiety, lockdown, trafic reduction...

Most should recover in all cases and may develop some form of immunity

Cloudy Sky


Life finds a way and most will recover and let’s remember all those who may have left us

Cloudy Sky

Unfortunately sometimes life ends, we all try our best to have long nice best moments.

Some go with Corona (Maybe it shortenned their life, maybe not)

Some just go every day Let’s honor them all Let’s take care of a larger picture (obsessions restrict our thoughts)

A thought for healthcared professionals who have left because they were overworked

A thought for the elder who have left us with or without Corona without being able to say goodbye because of confinement

Infected in blue recovered in red

Cloudy Sky

Infections and recoveries

All are stronger and a little more adapted

Much of the Population has immunity

Time to reconstruct

How does the model test against reality

  Hypothesis confinement peak minimized if until April 12th. At this stage 2/3 of population would have been infected

Our analysis and its corelation to real available data is underneath:   

Date Real Losses Modeled Losses
16/03/20 55 67
17/03/20 71 86
18/03/20 104 109
19/03/20 144 139
20/03/20 177 176
21/03/20 233 224
22/03/20 281 285
23/03/20 335 362
24/03/20 422 460
25/03/20 463 584
26/03/20 578 741
27/03/20 759 939
28/03/20 1019 1188

 UK started measures later to favor a quicker end and benefit from herd immunity

They need that herd immunity and a quick end as they may not get weather’s help

We may expect (hope) numbers of lossed to slow as weather becomes milder, people deal better with it, maybe the weaker are more subject to first ingection exposure, maybe people strengthen their immunity, maybe the healthcare system deals better with it, maybe the system starts to try to count only over mortality