Spain Story Model

This Page shows how according to this model the Spain story would be described.              

It is only an attempt to describe subject to corrections, improvements, suggestions.Many models may provide different conclusions, this one shows some consistency and is the reason why we are sharing for better research for all.

You can see our analysis on the data and cross check to see how accurate the analysis is. You can see the dates, as per our analysis, at which the curve changes and things start becoming better by clicking here.

This country has a population of   47 Millions  
This model describes best if situation started January 12th 2020  
Each individual was infecting at a rate of 0.3 per day during 9 to 10 days   
Government proceeded to progressive lockdowns March 14th


(2,7 to 3,0)

Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary

(2,7 to 3,0) Fits best ran models – except for South Korea that seems to capture clusters regulary Model may work if its started a few days later but entered 2 infected people navigating in different spheres or a superspreader appeared early on 
On March 14th 5%? (Infected people)  
 Spain has a steeper curve that maybe explained by the possibility that a group of infected got in early Feb or by some super-spreading very early  
Expected peak infection date

April 2nd
Population Immuned
Expected peak lossed date

April 6th
Population Immuned then
67.00% These numbers maybe altered by lockdown/unlock dates and policy changes to unlock
Expected herd immunity (natural R0 on population <1)

April 10th
Population Immuned
Expected losses <100/day

May 2nd
Poupulation Immuned
Cloudy Sky

Projected daily loss in blue natural spread in red with confinment

Cloudy Sky

What will be the effect of heat in the coming weeks

Spain will tell us a lot as we move onto April

There are reasons to hope spring and heat may slow it down as 4 out 5

Coronaviruses see their spread slowed down by heat


Most should recover in all cases and may develop some form of immunity

Life finds a way and most will recover and let’s remember all those who may have left us

Cloudy Sky


Unfortunately sometimes life ends, we all try our best to have long nice best moments.

Some go with Corona (Maybe it shortenned their life, maybe not)

Some just go every day Let’s honor them all

Let’s take care of a larger picture (obsessions restrict our thoughts)

A thought for healthcared professionals who have left because they were overworked

Infected in blue recovered in red

Infections and recoveries

All are stronger and a little more adapted

Much of the Population has immunity

Time to reconstruct

How does the model test against reality

Hypothesis confinement peak minimized if until April 12th. At this stage 2/3 of population would have been infected

Our analysis and its corelation to real available data is underneath:   

Date Real Losses Modeled Losses
15/03/20 292 332
16/03/20 342 422
17/03/20 510 535
18/03/20 624 679
19/03/20 803 861
20/03/20 1,050 1089
21/03/20 1,378 1376
22/03/20 1,756 1736
23/03/20 2,207 2183
24/03/20 2800 2738
25/03/20 3445 3420
26/03/20 4145 3976
27/03/20 5,138 4606
28/03/20 5,812 5310