Portugal Story Model

This Page shows how according to this model the Portugal story would be described.              

It is only an attempt to describe subject to corrections, improvements, suggestions.

Many models may provide different conclusions, this one shows some consistency and is the reason why we are sharing for better research for all.

You can see our analysis on the data and cross check to see how accurate the analysis is. You can see the dates, as per our analysis, at which the curve changes and things start becoming better by clicking here.

Expected peak infection date     April 25th   Population Immuned   47,00%
Expected peak lossed date     April 26th   Population Immuned then   51,00%
Expected herd immunity (natural R0 on population <1)     May 1st   Population Immuned   71,00%
Expected losses <100/day     May 17th   Poupulation Immuned   81,00%
Cloudy Sky

With Confinment Factor

Assuming Confinment stops April 12th

If this model is correct a very large portion of Wuhan has been infected and recovered

It would mean Wuhan, is largely protected for as long as full or partial immunity lasts

Projected daily loss in blue natural spread in red with confinment

Cloudy SkyCloudy Sky

Life finds a way and most will recover and let’s remember all those who may have left us

Unfortunately sometimes life ends, we all try our best to have long nice best moments.

Some go with Corona (Maybe it shortened their life, maybe not)

Some just go every day Let’s honor them all Let’s take care of a larger picture (obsessions restrict our thoughts)

A thought for healthcare professionals who have left because they were overworked

A thought for the elder who have left us with or without Corona without being able to say goodbye because of confinement

Our analysis and its correlation to real available data is underneath:   

Date Losses real Modeled losses
23/03/20 23 25
24/03/20 33 31
25/03/20 43 37
26/03/20 60 45
27/03/20 76 54
28/03/20 100 64
29/03/20 120 77
30/03/20 140 92
31/03/20 160 109
01/04/20 187 130
02/04/20 209 154
03/04/20 246 182
04/04/20 266 215
05/04/20 295 254
06/04/20 311 299
07/04/20 345 353
08/04/20 380 374
09/04/20 409 440
10/04/20 435 467
11/04/20 470 499
12/04/20 504 536
13/04/20 535 579

Infections and recoveries

All are stronger and a little more adapted

Much of the Population has immunity

Time to reconstruct

How does the model test against reality