Portugal Story Model
This Page shows how according to this model the Portugal story would be described.
It is only an attempt to describe subject to corrections, improvements, suggestions.
Many models may provide different conclusions, this one shows some consistency and is the reason why we are sharing for better research for all.
You can see our analysis on the data and cross check to see how accurate the analysis is. You can see the dates, as per our analysis, at which the curve changes and things start becoming better by clicking here.
| Expected peak infection date | April 25th | Population Immuned | 47,00% | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected peak lossed date | April 26th | Population Immuned then | 51,00% | ||||
| Expected herd immunity (natural R0 on population <1) | May 1st | Population Immuned | 71,00% | ||||
| Expected losses <100/day | May 17th | Poupulation Immuned | 81,00% | ||||
With Confinment Factor
Assuming Confinment stops April 12th
If this model is correct a very large portion of Wuhan has been infected and recovered
It would mean Wuhan, is largely protected for as long as full or partial immunity lasts
Projected daily loss in blue natural spread in red with confinment
Life finds a way and most will recover and let’s remember all those who may have left us
Unfortunately sometimes life ends, we all try our best to have long nice best moments.
Some go with Corona (Maybe it shortened their life, maybe not)
Some just go every day Let’s honor them all Let’s take care of a larger picture (obsessions restrict our thoughts)
A thought for healthcare professionals who have left because they were overworked
A thought for the elder who have left us with or without Corona without being able to say goodbye because of confinement
Our analysis and its correlation to real available data is underneath:
| Date | Losses real | Modeled losses |
|---|---|---|
| 23/03/20 | 23 | 25 |
| 24/03/20 | 33 | 31 |
| 25/03/20 | 43 | 37 |
| 26/03/20 | 60 | 45 |
| 27/03/20 | 76 | 54 |
| 28/03/20 | 100 | 64 |
| 29/03/20 | 120 | 77 |
| 30/03/20 | 140 | 92 |
| 31/03/20 | 160 | 109 |
| 01/04/20 | 187 | 130 |
| 02/04/20 | 209 | 154 |
| 03/04/20 | 246 | 182 |
| 04/04/20 | 266 | 215 |
| 05/04/20 | 295 | 254 |
| 06/04/20 | 311 | 299 |
| 07/04/20 | 345 | 353 |
| 08/04/20 | 380 | 374 |
| 09/04/20 | 409 | 440 |
| 10/04/20 | 435 | 467 |
| 11/04/20 | 470 | 499 |
| 12/04/20 | 504 | 536 |
| 13/04/20 | 535 | 579 |
Infections and recoveries
All are stronger and a little more adapted
Much of the Population has immunity
Time to reconstruct
How does the model test against reality