Latest findings

We are constantly working to make amends to our model to try to be as close as possible to the reality. Here you can find our latest findings

A) Heat and sun may have a beneficial effect (possibly reducing aggravation, lethality and spread)

B) Our model has been giving us a lethality between .07% and .3% depending on population. On average survival rate has been estimated around 99.8% of exposed when corrected with natural death rate of that population. These numbers are very different than those of WHO but this is what our Mathematics were telling us and until the WHO would come up with a clear transparent model that makes sense, we work with what we have.

C) Denmark main hospital Rigshospitalet published the the result of tests , They state "Tests from 1,487 Danish blood donors may help shed new light on how deadly coronavirus really is. The World Health Organization, WHO, has estimated that the figure is around one to three percent. But it may turn out to be high, according to calculations made at Rigshospitalet. - We arrive at a much lower figure of 1.6 per thousand. So if we have 1,000 Danes who have had this infection, there are one to two who have died with it, says Henrik Ullum, a consultant and professor at Rigshospitalet." Thus they estimate lethality to be around .16% (our model counts .2%) and exposed population to 2.7% (our model counts 2.9%).  You can access the news article talking about the study here.

Iceland tests seem to confirm very low lethality rate and high asymptomatic proportion

D) In France was published on April 8 that according to scientific council they estimated 10 to 15% of population to have been immuned based on 1st tests 

Our model tells 10% on April 2nd and 15% on April 7th.

This also gives a lethality between .14% and .23% in line with the .2% average in tempered countries given by our model

Depending on heat and sun (largely) we expect 50% very late April or mid May. E) Iceland tests seem to confirm very low lethality rate and high asymptomatic proportion

F) France out of 6 to 10 Million likely infected only 1.6 millions out of 6 to 10 Millions infected felt symptoms strong enough to call their doctor (Most may be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and some may be afraid)

Basically an extrapolation would give us 70% to 80% have no or insignificant syptoms 18% to 28% go through basic medicine and are given vitamin C, rest, ....2% get tested in Hospital.... 99.8+% survive

G) Efforts are being put in prevention to increase proportions of population who recover and protect the healthcare system. THE WHO and OTHER studies recommend vitamin D and more SUN for population WHO And Queen Elizabeth university recommend sun as

Maybe recommend a rich vitamins minerals diet to support immunity and reduce inflammation

Call for expertise

1) Our model seems to indicate a slowdown of the epidemic as warm sunny weather is arriving. This slow down may be even stronger than that of lockdown. This is consistent with Dr John Nicholls expectation since February. , . However it is not slowing down to the extent expected by Professor Nicholls, (or not yet). Questions for VIROLOGISTS and IMMUNOLOGISTS familiar with SARS-cov and SARS-Cov-v2. Is it just the heat that is destroying the virus outside of the organism (in non air conditionned areas) ? Is it that people are catching the infection but dealing better with it because of sun benefits, immunity function, mucus production and fluidity in warm weather? The latter seems to fit the numbers better as it would explain that lethality drops further and contagion slows because people stay infected less time. Would that indicate that summer is a good time to build herd immunity ? Would that mean that taking sun maybe a preventive measure?


2) In some hospitals, they seem to give asymptomatic positives supplementation in minerals and vitamins. Sun and heat seem to have a beneficial effect. In ancient times, they used Sanatoriums to heal with decent success Tuberculosis. Is any country taking preventive measures to offload the hospital system by strengthening population , encouraging sun exposure with social distancing, supplementing vitamins and minerals

At the very least it will give the enormous benefit of a Placebo effect (25% to 30%) and may actually help some people to an extent that is beyond expectations.

It would also send a message to people, we are helping you be stronger.



This would reassure people and offload Hospitals.


This is a work in progress we are sharing for suggestions to correct, improve, challenge by other computer scientists, mathematicians, or other people with a skill that can improve/correct the model. We are assuming, we think righlty that the immense majority is acting in good faith and trying its best. We are assuming that specialists and experts provide valuable input when they document their purposes. We also feel we should all be humble as each one is only seeing some facets. We also assume that models evolve and that new variables affect all the time. This is NOT A VIROLOGY OR EPIDEMIOLOGY model it is a a simulation tool extracting plausible scenarios. We also feel there is a misunderstanding in the way many if not most have interpreted Wuhan situation and have used as a model. See Wuhan section. Published numbers and more recently serology tests are validating the model.Our ongoing challenge is analyze the effect of heat and how sunshine helps. Since the contagion is very high, we believe that a vast majority will get the virus and will build some form of immunity to turn it into a fourth common cold if we have that wisdom. We can also see (also backed by public information) that as the numbers are starting to increase, governments are not able to report many losses for 2 reasons, some go under the radar and at start all deaths were attibuted abusively in our opinion to CO-VID (95 years old woman tested post mortem in France, 99 years old woman in Spain, people with heart attacks or final stage killer disease were attributed to CO-VID spreading fear) As numbers rise based on that consistent but unereasonable choice, many countries are trying to allocate things to something more reasonable. Can they be heard by a proportion of paniqued population in distress?

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