We are grateful to Professor Bricaire for his help, to
view how Professor Bricaire's input has helped us please click
We studied and cross referenced data on different countries,
regions and seasons to draw conclusions.
Our initial model was expecting an epidemic end some
time around end of the month of May, to view that table click
1)We find correlations with subway/metro daily ridership,
number of hours of day light and UVs
2)We find significant indications that the epidemic spread
is cluster based, has a low K value and requires special
circumstances thus having a varying R depending on different
factors amongst which above mentioned.
3) We find significant indications that epidemic spread is
favoured by promiscuity, prolonged exposure, in closed spaces,
often air conditioned (recycled air) thus hinting towards
aerosol contagion or shared toilets (faecal matter
transmitted by hands in common spaces) or both. But also
hinting towards higher fragility and higher sensitivity
in such closed spaces with artificial air recycling and
4) We also find significant indications that the epidemic
will only affect a subset of the population ranging from 28%
5) We find significant indications that some
countries/regions have more favourable conditions to the
spread of the epidemic.
6) We find signifcant indications that many
countries/regions the epidemic may have started significantly
before thought and in many places may have peaked earlier than
thought thus indicating that the epidemic almost followed its
natural spread until peak.
7) Based on above findings we feel herd immunity varies
from region to region. It could be as low as 5% in some
regions and up to 25% of the population in other regions.
Regions where the epidemic peaked at its natural course are
probably very close to have reached herd immunity for that
8) Two main scenarios appear
1) A progressive definitive fade away of the epidemic
with clusters of infected people occasionally (likelyhood 45%
dependent on animal reservoir and tropical area)
2) Virus picks up in a much more limited manner where herd
immunity is incomplete when conditions and factors become
favourable and that scenarios is also 45% likely and dependent
on tropical regions and animal reservoirs. In that case based
on immunity, it may be that from season to season or situation
to situation it may become milder to reach the level of a
common cold because of our adaptation to it.
We are preparing a synthetic paper with all our findings,
scenarios that we will publish soon.